The state Department of Water Resources said rain is unlikely over the next two weeks.
By Alan Riquelmy, Courthouse News Service
California is facing a loss of its snowpack as its wettest time of the year crosses the halfway mark.
The second snow survey of the season, held Friday at some 260 sites across California, showed Phillips Station — near Lake Tahoe — had 23 inches of snow depth. Its snow-water content, the amount of water if the snow melted, was 8 inches.
That translates to a snowpack that’s 46% of average for the current survey, and 33% of average of the April 1 survey. It’s about a 5% drop in snowpack from the Dec. 30 survey.
The snowpack is 59% of average for this date statewide. It was 67% of average on this date last year.
The Sierra Nevada snowpack provides about 30% of the state’s water needs.
“We still have some time to catch up,” said Andy Reising, manager of the Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit with the state Department of Water Resources.
Water managers across the state are warily eyeing the calendar, as about half of California’s yearly rainfall comes between December through February. Seventy-five percent falls between November and March.
That’s why Reising’s department puts much weight on its April 1 survey each year. It’s when snowpack — itself a reservoir in solid state — is at its peak. By April 1 each year, the sun’s angle ensures snowpack won’t continue to build and will instead melt, filling rivers and reservoirs.
“This is not the time we want to be going backward,” Reising said of snowpack levels.
David Rizzardo, hydrology section manager with the department, said he’d prefer if the April 1 average sat closer to 66% at this time. He also lamented the loss of about an inch of snow depth at Phillips Station since Jan. 1.
A wet February and March could improve the state’s numbers, as has happened in past years, but there’s no guarantee.
“That’s definitely something that concerns us,” Rizzardo said.
While water managers can’t predict long-term with any accuracy, they said the next two weeks look dry.
Michael Anderson, state climatologist with the department, sketched broad outlines of what weather over the next several months could bring.
Anderson foresaw all of California experiencing above average temperatures between February and April, with most of the state getting below average precipitation during that time.
“This water year started out great,” he added.
October and November rains prepped the soil. December started off dry, but two strong storms swept through late that month and early January. However, California has seen a dry spell since then.
“We are now two-thirds through what should be the best snow-producing months of the year,” Reising said in a statement. “While there is still time for February and March to deliver additional snow, the farther into the season we get with below average conditions, the harder it will be to catch up.”
Looking far ahead, Anderson said it’s possible California could get the benefit of an El Niño climate pattern next year.
If that prediction holds true, the state could see a number of smaller storms cross California that, put together, provide sufficient water.
Despite the dry conditions the state currently finds itself in, California’s reservoirs appear in good condition. The department said its major reservoirs are at 126% of average, pointing to recent rain and three consecutive years of a strong snowpack.
