CA AGRICULTURE: Central Valley decision support tool helps predict yield and profitability response to irrigation with saline water

By Floyid Nicolas, PhD, Mae Culumber, PhD, Hossein Shahrokhnia, PhD, Usama Al-Dughaishi, PhD, Jongwon Do, PhD, Sharon Benes, PhD, Isaya Kisekka, PhD

This study introduces a novel decision support web tool (doi.org/10.15140/D3J04K) to assist farmers and policymakers in managing salinity in California’s Central Valley. The tool integrates agronomic, economic and spatial data to predict crop yield and profitability under varying irrigation water salinity. This resource also supports policymakers and groundwater sustainability agencies in identifying areas where saline groundwater prevents profitable farming and prioritizing those areas for land repurposing to reduce agricultural water demand.

We evaluated the tool by predicting yield and profitability for alfalfa, almonds, pistachios, table grapes, and processing tomatoes under varying salinity at field and regional scales. Alfalfa maintained high yields and profitability across varying salinity levels, while table grapes showed strong economic resilience; however, almonds were most sensitive to water quality degradation. The spatial analysis indicated regional variation, with western Central Valley regions showing lower yields and profitability due to high groundwater salinity. This tool highlights the role decision support technologies can play in advancing sustainable irrigation under water quality constraints.