The Bureau of Reclamation is currently developing the post-2026 operational guidelines for managing the Colorado River system reservoirs. The guidelines will have a significant impact on releases from Lake Powell, water uses and shortages in the Lower Basin, and storage of conserved water (like Intentionally Created Surplus) in Lake Mead.
Since last spring, the Colorado River Basin states have been actively involved in the negotiations, submitting several alternatives. Despite the continued efforts, reaching a consensus has proven to be a challenging task. At the November meeting of Metropolitan’s One Water and Stewardship Committee, Shanti Rosset, Colorado River Program Manager, provided an update on the ongoing negotiations.
Reclamation is using five hydrology sets to evaluate how the alternatives perform with respect to elevations in Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the total volume of water use reductions that would be required for the Lower Basin and Mexico, and the volume of annual Lake Powell releases. Reclamation is analyzing four main alternatives, a no-action alternative, and one or more federal alternatives that will be identified sometime between now and December.
Ms. Rosset noted that Reclamation modeled drier hydrology as well as wetter and average hydrology over the last 30 years. They did not model any reductions to the Upper Basin except in the lowest system conditions in the lower basin alternative. They also modeled increasing demands in the Upper Basin.
“As a result, Reclamation’s preliminary modeling shows that the Upper Basin state’s alternative keeps Lake Powell higher, sometimes much higher, under all flow conditions due to lower Lake Powell releases and by imposing lower basin reductions at higher initial elevations,” said Shanti Rosset. “The Lower Basin state’s alternative keeps Lake Mead above elevation 1000 feet, which is the critical elevation, nearly 90% of the years and even under the driest conditions, but Lake Powell is below elevation 3500 feet, which has been identified by Reclamation as a critical elevation, in nearly half of the years.”
“The Upper Basin and Lower Basins continue to have differing views regarding the volume of releases that should be made from Lake Powell, the size and frequency of shortage for water use reductions in the lower basin, and whether the upper basin will take reductions in the lowest system conditions,” she continued. “The Lower Basin state’s alternative represents a sort of compromise because it includes instances when releases from Lake Powell would be less than the volume that’s required by the 1922 Colorado River Compact without an agreement. Otherwise, the lower basin states have the right to make a compact call on the upper basin states to deliver at least 75 million acre-feet every 10 years for use in the lower basin and half of the Mexico treaty deliveries.”
She noted that under existing operations, releases from Lake Powell could fall below the compact minimum as early as 2026. If releases from Lake Powell stay at or below 7.48 million acre-feet in 2025 and 2026 as currently forecast, this means that the lower basin states may have the right to make a call on the Upper Basin states to make more significant releases from Lake Powell as early as 2026.
“Yet despite this, the Upper Basin states have not gotten any closer to compromise with the Lower Basin states,” she said. “Their alternative would reduce the volume of water released from Lake Powell and impose cuts on the lower basin in more years, all while increasing upper basin water uses. Their alternative includes the possibility of voluntary parallel activities like system conservation, but not mandatory cuts in the upper basin.”
“The Lower Basin state’s alternative includes reservoir releases and water use reductions that would respond to hydrology and system conditions, which, in the driest scenarios, include Lake Powell releases that are less than what is required by the compact. The lower basin states will retain their right to make a compact call, but if the upper basin states will agree to a compromise that leads to a seven-state consensus, then the lower basin states would agree to take less water than is required by the compact, in exchange for greater certainty that water will be delivered in more system conditions.”
The goal is still to reach a consensus, but if consensus isn’t reached, the lower basin states would likely make a compact call on the Upper Basin states, said Ms. Rosset. This could lead to litigation between the basin states regarding disputes over issues like the Upper Basin’s obligations to make half of the Mexico treaty deliveries and to deliver at least 75 million acre-feet every 10 years in the lower basin.
Reclamation plans to present a matrix of alternatives that will be carried forward into the draft EIS sometime between now and the Colorado River Water Users Association meeting in December. Next year, there will be a new Department of Interior leadership team, which may bring changes in Interior’s approach to the post-2026 operational guidelines.
Interim General Manager Deven Upadhyay noted that this is the last set of meetings before the Colorado River Users Association meeting in early December. There will be a lot of discussions on how the negotiations are going.
“One of the mantras I’ve been hearing from the Upper Basin is related to compact compliance. The notion that the Lower Basin would hold the Upper Basin’s feet to the fire, that they have to release an average of seven and a half million acre-feet, or 75 million acre-feet over 10 years, is untenable,” he said. “A compromise has already been put on the table by the Lower Basin. The lower division state’s proposal includes releases from Powell into the lower basin that would be significantly lower than what you would see under compact compliance or a compact call as part of a deal where the upper basin, in the most extreme circumstances, would also be reducing their use.”
“So I just wanted that to be clear on Metropolitan’s behalf, and the other Lower Basin states that you’re not under the impression that we’ve taken a hard line that the Upper Basin must meet a compact call all the time at all costs, but rather, we’ve offered something that is a compromise, and hope that it isn’t characterized otherwise.”
Director Stephen Faessel (Anaheim) asked about the critical elevation for Lake Mead being set at 1000 feet. He recalls at one point, it was 1050 because anything below 1050 starts then affecting power generation.
Ms. Rosset said that it has been shifted downward to 1000 feet, which is the elevation that all water can be delivered through the hydropower generation tubes, not the bypass tubes. “In the last set of guidelines, the critical elevation was designated as 1025. It triggered a reconciliation if we got down to 1025, and that has been shifted down to 1000 in this preliminary set of modeling that’s been done. We’ve heard that it’s going to be further shifted down to 950 because Reclamations determined that that’s the new critical elevation. And just for a comparison, the intake that the Southern Nevada Water Authority built is at 895, but Metropolitan and Arizona and the rest of California’s water deliveries can be impacted when the elevation gets to that 950 level.”
Metropolitan awarded funding for system conservation projects
Laura Lamdin, Engineer, announced that three Metropolitan proposals intended to reduce long-term demand on the Colorado River have been accepted by the Bureau of Reclamation for funding. The three projects are the AVEK High Desert Water Bank, a turf removal proposal, and a Disadvantaged Community Leak Detection and Repair Program.
“Under these agreements, we would be eligible for up to $82 million in funding for our AVEK High Desert Water Bank and up to approximately $96 million for the removal of 30 million square feet of turf on our commercial, industrial, and institutional properties in our service area,” said Ms. Lamdin. “Payment would be based on meeting project milestone dates, not on system water generation, and not upfront. In exchange, we would agree to implement the projects and create a total of 265,296 acre-feet of new system conservation water to leave in Lake Mead.”
Ms. Lamdin will be bringing the agreements to the Committee in December for approval.
