The forecast, and discussion about a new agreement between the seven states that rely on the Colorado River basin, came on the final day of a water conference in Las Vegas.
By Alan Riquelmy, Courthouse News Service
Managing water in the Colorado River basin is like balancing your checkbook.
Jack Schmidt, director of the Center for Colorado River Studies at Utah State University, played a role in developing a budget for the Colorado River basin, upon which seven states rely.
The bottom line — he used a lot of red ink.
“Nothing more than checkbook accounting — what goes in, what goes out,” Schmidt said. “We’re taking more out of the checking account than we’re putting in.”
Schmidt spoke Thursday, the third and final day of the annual Colorado River Water Users Association’s conference in Las Vegas. Attendees to the conference heard similar messages each day: the need to work together and self-sacrifice, the push against seeking answers through litigation and the looming threat of dry conditions on the horizon.
Speakers on Thursday focused on the latter. In advance of a quickly advancing deadline to create a new seven-state agreement on operations in the Colorado River basin, Schmidt said he wanted to provide a view of conditions before the old deal expires next year.
According to Schmidt, there’s a 1.5 million acre-foot deficit in the basin. Significant problems occur in reservoirs like Lake Powell and Lake Mead when the water dips beneath a certain point, including losing the ability to generate power.
If his forecast holds true over the next year, storage levels will drop to a point just 4 million acre-feet shy of the danger zone.
Schmidt said water management becomes complex when storage drops to that level.
“That simply says, we’ve got to change our behavior soon,” Schmidt said.
“Let’s hope it snows,” he added.
Unfortunately, the forecast for the checking account appears dire.
Eric Kuhn, retired general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, said this water year — Oct. 1 to Sept. 30, 2026 — had a rough start. Snowpack currently is around 60% of its median. Also, soil moisture is low in much of the river basin.
Kuhn expects many reservoir operators will want to store as much water as possible.
“Ocean conditions are changing,” he added with a bit of optimism. “We may be in for a wet year, but don’t count on it.”
Pivoting to the ongoing discussions about the new guidelines, Kuhn reiterated a theme of this year’s conference: The states in the Colorado River basin must continue to work toward compromise and avoid litigation.
Less water in the basin isn’t the only factor adding difficulty to those talks. There’s also the specter of change on the political side.
Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, noted that six basin states have gubernatorial elections in 2026. Two years after that, there’s a presidential election and governor’s race in Utah.
New leaders with potentially different outlooks and the threat of low water storage portend possible conflict, Porter said.
“These contexts, I think, should be sobering,” she added.
Overarching all these factors — a potentially dry water year, weak snowpack and a string of new political leaders — is the new basin operating agreement the seven states are striving to reach before 2027.
The states have a strong impetus for reaching consensus on their own. They want to avoid the federal government imposing rules they don’t like and they want to avoid litigation.
The seven basin state commissioners, appointed by their respective governors, touched briefly Thursday on their own water conditions and the agreement. While disagreements simmered, they appeared committed to staying at the negotiating table.
“We are still at the table,” said Gene Shawcroft, Utah’s commissioner. “We are working hard.”
Brandon Gebhart, Wyoming’s commissioner, said they have a responsibility to reach a consensus solution.
“None of us are done trying,” he added.
