A wrap-up of posts published on Maven’s Notebook this week …
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In California water news this week …
DWR announces initial State Water Project allocation of 10% for 2024
“Today, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) announced an initial State Water Project (SWP) allocation forecast of 10 percent of requested supplies for 2024. The SWP provides water to 29 public water agencies that serve 27 million Californians. The December 1 initial water supply forecast is the first allocation of the new water year and is based on current reservoir storage and an assumption of very dry conditions. So far in October and November, storms have not brought as much rain and snow. “California’s water year is off to a relatively dry start. While we are hopeful that this El Niño pattern will generate wet weather, this early in the season we have to plan with drier conditions in mind,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “California’s water supply continues to benefit from our aggressive efforts last season to capture record rain and snow melt in our reservoirs and groundwater basins.” … ” Read more from DWR.
Are atmospheric river storms coming to California soon? Here’s the forecast
“California’s weather pattern this December is set to be a mixed bag of rain and shine. The first week of December is set to bring some wet conditions, primarily impacting the northern region of the state. Weather models and recent trends with El Niño are favoring equal chances of above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation through the end of the month. While low pressure systems are expected to frequently march toward the West Coast in early December, the bulk of their rain and snow is more likely to impact the Pacific Northwest. … ” Read more from the San Francisco Chronicle (gift article).
SEE ALSO: Here’s a timeline of snowfall at Sierra Nevada ski resorts this week, from the San Francisco Chronicle
The vision of El Niño as producer of historic California storms may be outdated
“In 1983, El Niño brought historic flooding to parts of Southern California, toppling sections of fishing piers and inspiring some to travel submerged streets by surfboard. In 1998, it returned, dusting regional mountains with snow through May. For Californians’ collective mind, the weather phenomenon, defined by an eastward-moving, warmer-than-normal sea surface along the equatorial Pacific, is shaped by those traumatic, potent winters with record precipitation. But as some earth scientists see a bit of 1983 or 1998 in the coming winter’s strong El Niño, they may be neglecting a new reality: A stormy, wet El Niño of that vintage hasn’t struck California this century. … ” Read more from NBC News.
El Niño: What it is, how it devastates economies, and where it intersects with climate change
“There is a band of water across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, stretching from the coast of South America through to the island nations of Southeast Asia, whose temperature climatologists closely monitor as a driver of global weather patterns. Typically, warm water that settles around Indonesia during early spring works as an atmospheric engine, an energy source that affects weather patterns around the world for the coming year. But every two to seven years, this atmospheric engine shifts. When unusually warm water settles instead off the western coasts of Mexico and South America during the spring, the moisture and energy released into the atmosphere can profoundly change regional weather, from North America and South America to Asia and Africa. As of mid-November, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration give a more than 55% chance of a strong El Niño this winter. Odds are 35% for a historically strong El Niño, like those that happened from 2015 to 2016, and 1997 to 1998. Odds are 62% that El Niño will persist into spring 2024. … ” Read more from the Journalists Resource.
A better way to promote urban water conservation
“Reducing per capita water use in cities and suburbs is key for helping communities get through droughts. And together with strategies to improve water supplies, it can also help build long-term water resilience in the face of our changing climate. In recent decades, Californians have been making great strides in long-term water conservation, and this latest drought showed once again that communities will go the extra mile to save water during droughts if needed. But while it’s often assumed that water conservation is inexpensive, it actually can be very costly. In response to 2018 legislation, the State Water Board is now considering new urban water use regulations whose statewide costs would far exceed their benefits. What’s more, these costs would significantly impact affordability, hitting inland, lower-income communities hardest. In this post, we explore some of the proposed regulations’ challenges and suggest some better approaches for implementing the law. An accompanying dataset provides further details. … ” Read more from the PPIC Water.
To avoid potential state takeover, Court upholds county groundwater management role in dispute between competing Groundwater Sustainability Agencies
“With two groundwater sustainability agencies (“GSAs”) competing for power to regulate intake wells for a hotly contested desalination plant proposed on Monterey Bay, an appellate court has embraced the preservation of local groundwater management authority as a touchstone for resolving disputes over the implementation of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (“SGMA”). On November 13, 2023, the California Court of Appeal for the Sixth Appellate District held that where two GSAs claim overlapping jurisdiction, the county may serve as the GSA for the disputed overlap area to avoid the potential for the state to take over groundwater management. … ” Read more from the Kronick Law Firm.
Future of water: Improved monitoring to lengthen ageing Californian dam’s life
“Digital twin technology is being used to monitor the structural health of a 50 year old concrete dam providing flood protection and water security in Northern California. New Bullards Bar Dam in the Yuba Valley of northern California is now more than 50 years old, having been completed in 1969 and put into operation in 1970. The double curvature concrete arch dam stands 197m tall and approximately 700m wide, forming a reservoir holding 1.19km3 of water. The dam is the second tallest in California and the fifth tallest in the United States. The reservoir’s main purpose is to provide the population of Yuba County with flood protection and a sustainable water supply. It is also used for recreational activities, hydropower and fish habitat enhancement. With resilience becoming ever more essential in a world facing the impacts of climate change, the dam’s owner and operator Yuba Water Agency decided to implement Bentley Systems’ digital twin technology to collect detailed real-time data on its health. … ” Read more from New Civil Engineer.
The Yuba River and the Bay Delta: A vital connection for salmon and our communities
“The Yuba River and the Bay Delta are connected by more than water. They are also linked by the migration of salmon, which depend on both habitats for their survival. These fish provide food, recreation, and cultural value for millions of Californians. The water that is crucial to these ecosystems also grows the food we eat and powers our homes. Balancing the demands on California’s limited water supply is a complex challenge. The Bay Delta is a large natural estuary that consists of two water systems: the San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. Two major rivers in California, the Sacramento and the San Joaquin, meet and merge at the Delta. That freshwater flows into the Delta, eventually mixes with the salt water in the Bay, and then moves into the Pacific Ocean. Juvenile salmon from the Yuba River make an approximately 110-mile journey through the Bay Delta to the ocean every year. Returning adults hold in the Delta waiting for the right moment before making the 110-mile return journey to spawn in the Yuba. … ” Read more from the South Yuba River Citizens League.
New survey of Delta residents aims to boost quality of life and equity
“The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta seems like one of the most scrutinized places on Earth, with decades of data on everything from fish populations to water flows, temperatures and salinity. But key indicators of the region’s health are missing. The Delta, like many estuarine areas, is a lived-in landscape yet little is known about the well-being and priorities of the people living there. A new survey of Delta residents is a first step toward filling this social science data gap. The findings illuminate resident’s concerns and attitudes on the biggest environmental issues in the region, which could help decision-makers enhance the quality of life for local people. … ” Read more from Maven’s Notebook.
Press release: Environmental, fishing, and community organizations petition California and feds to protect SF Bay white sturgeon under endangered species laws
“Today, San Francisco Baykeeper, California Sportfishing Protection Alliance, the Bay Institute, and Restore the Delta petitioned the California Fish and Game Commission to list the California white sturgeon as threatened under the California Endangered Species Act. Separately, these groups petitioned Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and NOAA Fisheries to list the San Francisco Bay population of white sturgeon as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act. San Francisco Bay and its watershed are home to the only known reproductive population of white sturgeon in California. Excessive freshwater diversions, regular overfishing, and recent algal outbreaks in the Bay have decimated the population. Immediate action is necessary to protect this fish, already categorized as a species of special concern in California, as well as its habitat. “White sturgeon have been around for about 46 million years,” said Baykeeper science director Jon Rosenfield, PhD. “They are the ultimate survivors, but the Bay’s population might not survive into the next generation because of neglect from government agencies that are supposed to protect our Bay and its fishes. … ” Read more from the Baykeeper.
‘Deep disappointment:’ Global climate envoy Newsom is alienating environmentalists at home
“Gov. Gavin Newsom has been positioning himself as a global climate leader this year, evangelizing California environmentalism in China and at the United Nations. But at home, he is increasingly at loggerheads with leading environmentalists. Environmental groups and tribes say the governor’s plan to protect water supply from climate change will exacerbate existing ecological devastation and irreversibly damage the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, the central hub of the state’s water system. While this relationship has been fraying for years, a new fault line opened this month when Newsom used newfound authority to fast track approval for the largest proposed piece of concrete water infrastructure to be built by the state in decades. … ” Read more from the Sacramento Bee.
NCA5: Drought and climate change in 10 maps
“The Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) represents the latest science in assessing changes in the climate, its national and regional impacts, and options to reduce present and future risk. Every five years, the U.S. Global Change Research Program releases a new National Climate Assessment. The newest assessment, NCA5, is a resource to understand how drought will change as the climate changes, how we can adapt, and how future droughts might impact your region and livelihood. Check out these 10 maps and graphics to learn more about drought in a changing climate. … ” Read more from NIDIS.
Why do small changes in global temperature matter so much?
“Scientists are warning us that even comparatively small changes in average temperature may have disastrous results. If you turn up your thermostat 2 ºC (about 3.6 ºF), the difference may be noticeable but it’s no big deal. So why is that a scary increase in global temperatures? Some reasons are physical, particularly the difference between being one degree below freezing versus one degree above. But another key reason is that we’ve finely tuned our society to a specific climate regime, which is abruptly changing. In the natural world, there are generalists species that do pretty well in a wide variety of settings and specialist species that are finally tuned to a specific setting. Homo sapiens is a generalist species — but are our current physical and social infrastructure is finely tuned for a very specific climate regime. Climate change upsets the applecart, disrupting entrenched adaptations to the physical world. … ” Read more from Legal Planet.
In commentary this week …
The logjam in Biden’s $50 billion dollar wildfire plan
Paul Koberstein and Jessica Applegate, co-authors of “Canopy of Titans: The Life and Times of the Great North American Temperate Rainforest, write, “On Maui, a solitary beachfront home, unscorched by the wildfire that devastated the town of Lahaina in August, stands amid the ashes of dozens of incinerated homes. And in Northern California, a large, mostly unscathed forest mysteriously surrounds the devastated town of Paradise, lost five years ago to another wildfire. These puzzling scenes illustrate a difficult truth about wildfires. Many structures in these towns were destroyed by firebrands — hot burning embers that can be carried by strong winds over many miles — not by flames from the original fires. Nearly 200 people perished in the Lahaina and Paradise fires combined. Several other communities in the American West have been lost this same way. The scenes also point to an obvious way to protect people from wildfire. The Lahaina home was recently remodeled, which unintentionally hardened the structure — making it resilient to fire. … ” Read more from Undark.
Artificial intelligence saves water and electricity, and boosts profits
Carlos Gaitan, CEO and Co-founder of San Diego, CA-based Benchmark Labs, writes, “Every day, I see a remarkable new technology at work. Our company’s artificial intelligence (AI)-powered software provides stunningly accurate weather data to farmers, energy companies, and landowners, helping them use less water, electricity, and fertilizer. Thanks to AI, they are reducing costs and actually generating more revenue, and in doing so, they save natural resources, leave more water for more farmers and factories, and help us meet the challenges of climate change. I know firsthand how AI can be a source of resilience and optimism. Unfortunately, it seems that media stories focus only on AI’s risks, not its power to solve problems and improve society. I’m worried that this negative attention could lead more people to fear AI or government overregulation, limiting AI’s tremendous positive potential. … ” Read more from Capitol Weekly.
In regional water news this week …
How removing 4 dams will return salmon to the Klamath River and the river to the people
“The fog that helps define Northern California’s famed “Lost Coast,” a green and lush world biosphere reserve, took on a sepia hue on this August morning. Smoke from the Smith River Complex Fire, burning along the Oregon border, mixed with the damp air and added a woody tang to the back of the throat as visitors arrived in the small town of Klamath, home to the Yurok Tribe. The unmistakable odor of exhaust from gas-powered generators mingled with the wildfire smoke. Businesses and homes were struggling to keep the lights on and food fresh in the wake of a countywide power outage. The local utility, anxious to avoid sparking more fires or supercharging existing fires, had switched off the electricity two days before. But power or not, the town crackled with activity. Vendors offered handcrafted abalone jewelry, local honey, wood crafts, T-shirts and hand-blown glass. They assembled tables and shade tents along Klamath Boulevard, the small town’s main drag. Parade floats and two marching bands were ready, and tribal leaders filled bags with candy to hand out to the crowd expected for the 59th Annual Yurok Salmon Festival. Amid the bustle, one essential element of the festival was missing: the salmon. … ” Continue reading at the Arizona Republic. Note: This story is the first of a five-part series. Look for links to the other stories in the series at the top of the article.
Meadow restoration in the Sierra-Cascade—keeping the momentum flowing
“There’s a lot to love about meadows in the Sierra-Cascade region and recent momentum in restoration efforts means there could be a lot more meadows to love. Currently, approximately 50 percent of known existing meadows are degraded or expected to be degraded and many more have already disappeared. The Sierra Nevada Conservancy (SNC) and its partners are working to restore these beloved ecosystems so that they can continue to provide essential services. A recent study by the U.S. Forest Service’s Pacific Southwest Research Station found that meadows historically covered 3 times the amount of area as they do today. This is more than previously documented, raising the possibility that meadows could be restored across even more of the landscape. … ” Read more from the Sierra Nevada Conservancy.
The significant environmental impact of Tahoe’s scarce wetlands
“Research shows that one acre of healthy Sierra Nevada wetlands can capture as much carbon from the air as one acre of a tropical rainforest. In South Lake Tahoe, these species rich wetlands sit between neighborhoods, lay like patchwork divided by roads, and with the help of the California Tahoe Conservancy and partners, are slowly reclaiming their territory. This reclamation comes as the CTC’s climate change projections predict the basin’s average temperatures will increase by four to nine degrees Fahrenheit in less than 80 years, making summer in Tahoe feel as hot as summer in San Jose does today. These wetlands already made up a small percentage of the landscape before human impacts, but after, meadows diminished by 50% and the wetter marshes by 75%, according to the CTC’s Watershed Program Supervisor Stuart Roll. … ” Read more from the Tahoe Daily Tribune.
District looks to prevent another ACID canal calamity
“The last time A News Cafe wrote about the Anderson-Cottonwood Irrigation District, dozens of residents were fed up with canal water seeping underground and creating a soggy springtime mess that lasted into the summer. Cracks in the canal soaked nearby lawns and sent fields overflowing. Homes that were all of a sudden surrounded by water became unlivable, forcing residents to evacuate. Algae-tainted pools of standing water persisted for weeks along residential streets, raising concerns from a nearby school. Residents dug shallow ditches and brought in pumps in desperate attempts to divert the water elsewhere. Toilets quit flushing when septic tanks backed up. The mosquito population skyrocketed. Many nervous homeowners wondered if the property damage would be long-lasting. Now, with the irrigation season over and the canal taken offline for the winter, ACID is moving forward with emergency plans it hopes will reduce future calamities. … ” Read more from A News Cafe.
With climate change, what will happen to the Bay Area’s fog?
“Any San Franciscan knows the complex relationship between the city and its pervasive companion — fog. “I both love and get frustrated by the fog,” said long-time resident and Bay Curious listener Lily Drexler. “I appreciate how it freshens the air and changes things up. But when there is fog for weeks on end with no break, that does get frustrating.” “Is it going to get more foggy as the sun bakes the ocean and creates the moisture, if that’s how fog works? Or is the heat and the warming of the planet going to decrease the fog?”Where should a fog-averse city dweller choose to settle down? And, more broadly, what would a future look like with less fog? How do we rely on fog now in the Bay Area and how might its absence change us? … ” Read more from KQED.
Salmon have returned to the East Bay’s water source in record numbers. What does it mean?
“The Mokelumne River, a 95-mile waterway that supplies a majority of drinking water to the East Bay, earned its name because of the abundance of salmon in its waters. Local legend has it that, many years ago, the rivers were so packed with salmon you could walk from shore to shore along their backs. Today, after 100 years of industrialization, the Mokelumne (pronounced muh-kaa-luh-mee), which flows from the Sierra Nevada to the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, is a much different river. Salmon now exist there primarily because of human intervention — hatcheries raise many of the salmon that return to its waters. To draw salmon upstream, water must be released from dams periodically to mimic natural weather patterns. Some hatchery fish are even driven to the San Francisco Bay in trucks in an effort to aid their passage to the ocean and increase the odds that they will one day return. … ” Read more from the San Jose Mercury News.
One of Santa Cruz County’s largest water sources is ‘critically overdrafted’; fixes are on the way
“More than 50,000 residents of Santa Cruz County are reliant on a single water source: the dwindling Mid-County Groundwater Basin, which the state deemed “critically overdrafted” nearly a decade ago. Now local agencies are embarking on efforts to boost the ability of the basin to capture more rain during the wet months along with an ambitious plan to replenish the basin’s drinking water supply with recycled wastewater. A number of agencies — including Soquel Creek Water District, the City of Santa Cruz Water Department, the Central Water District — and several thousand private well owners share the underground basin, a reserve made up of a group of linked aquifers, in an area that encompasses the Eastside of Santa Cruz, Live Oak, Soquel, Aptos and Capitola. That’s a lot of sources for one basin to supply. … ” Read more from Lookout Santa Cruz.
Merced agencies sought state approval to clear stream beds for more than five years before last winter’s floods. Now they’re suing.
“A string of emails appears to show that one state agency stood in the way of stream channel maintenance for more than five years, which may have led to flooding that caused severe damage in Merced County, according to a recent lawsuit. The emails begin in 2018 and go back and forth for years between several Merced agencies – seeking a permit agreement to clear stream beds of the Black Rascal, Bear and Miles creeks – and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW.) The emails show repeated warnings by CDFW that maintenance work could not be done without a permit agreement. Then, after 2023 floods destroyed homes, businesses and farmland, at least one email suggests staffers at CDFW sought to shift blame for the delayed channel work onto local agencies. … ” Read more from SJV Water.
Wetlands are appearing around the Salton Sea. Could this be a natural solution?
“About 3 miles east of Bombay Beach, and a half-mile back from the Salton Sea’s receding shoreline, the crunchy exposed playa gives way from a mostly empty white landscape to more and more native vegetation, and then suddenly a few shallow ponds appear, surrounded by dense vegetation. The Bombay Beach wetlands are an unexpected side effect of the shrinking sea, and Audubon California is eyeing this phenomenon as at least a partial solution to the complex issues at the Salton Sea. … ” Read more from the Desert Sun.
Colorado River deal opens cash spigot for big farms
“A widely hailed deal to conserve water from the shrinking Colorado River is turning into a windfall for some of the most powerful farmers and tribes in the West. A POLITICO investigation has found that many of the deals to save water under the three-year $1.2 billion pact struck by Arizona, California and Nevada in May are driving up the value of existing agreements to save or transfer water by nearly 50 percent. The Colorado River supplies water to 40 million people and vast swaths of the country’s most productive farmland — a task that’s becoming increasingly difficult as climate change shrivels its flow. But the investigation, based on more than a dozen interviews and analyses of federal, state and local documents, reveals that the gusher of federal money is likely to make a broader, long-term deal to save the West’s most important river more expensive. … ” Read more from Politico.
Want to test a theory on how to fix the Colorado River’s drought issues? There’s a model for that.
“Everyone from policymakers to armchair warriors has a theory on the best way to solve the Colorado River crisis. Soon they’ll have a chance to test out their ideas. The Colorado River’s flow is dropping — it’s about 18% lower in the 21st century than it was in the 20th century — and that’s a big deal to the 40 million people who depend on it for water across the West. But solving the crisis gets complicated, quickly. That’s where a team of researchers at the University of California, Riverside, think they can help. They’ve developed a new way of looking at water-saving efforts across the enormous basin, and they’re turning it into an interactive map and dashboard that everyone can use. … ” Read more from the Colorado Sun.
Announcements, notices, and funding opportunities …
CA WATER COMMISSION: Public comment period open for Water Commission’s Draft White Paper on Drought Strategies
