California Weather Blog: More active summer weather on the way; Very strong El Niño likely during autumn/winter 2015-2016

Daniel Swain at the California Weather Blog runs down recent conditions, and then gives a forecast:

Weather blog” … The CFS has been hinting at an unusually active summer for a couple of months now, and those early predictions may be realized. It now appears that there will be at least two opportunities for active weather across large portions of California over the next 10-12 days. Later during the coming week, deep southeasterly flow will develop over at least the southern half of California. This kind of pattern is a classic summer monsoonal setup, with the potential for a couple of easterly waves to propagate into Southern California from the Desert Southwest. Models also suggest that a weak upper-level low or trough may develop off of the NorCal coast as well, which would allow subtropical moisture to advect northward over much of California.

At the same time, soon-to-be Hurricane Dolores will slow move to the west-northwest off the coast of Baja California. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the ultimate track of Dolores, and if the system takes a more westward trajectory, there will likely be few (in any) impacts in California. If, however, the system takes a more northerly trajectory–as recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models suggest–prevailing southerly flow around the low off of NorCal may draw a considerable amount of remnant moisture and energy from then-former-hurricane Dolores over the state. ... ”

More from the California Weather Blog, including a look at the building El Nino here: Very strong El Niño likely during autumn/winter 2015-2016; significant impacts possible in California

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