Delta Stewardship Council science update: Delta smelt index dropping, Delta Science Plan starts to take shape and more

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Bad news regarding the Delta smelt and other species in the Delta, the Delta Science Plan starts to take shape, and the Delta Independent Science Board discusses their review of habitat restoration projects and the review of the BDCP governance and environmental documents in this science coverage from the January 24, 2012 meeting of the Delta Stewardship Council.

2012 DELTA SMELT INDEX NUMBERS DROPPING

Lauren Hastings, Deputy Executive Officer of the Delta Science Program, is filling in for Dr. Goodwin, who is at the National Science Foundation this week.  Ms. Hastings began with a discussion of the 2012 Delta smelt index and water project operations.  The Fall Midwater Trawl Survey indices are all much lower than they were last year.  They were much higher in 2011, which was a wet year, but 2012 was a dry year, said Ms. Hastings, “and the levels have basically dropped to where they were during what we call the POD year … one wet year unfortunately does not solve the problem for the species.”

The fall midwater trawl indices are not just indicators; regulatory agencies also use them to develop the take limits, Ms. Hastings explained, and this year, there’s already concern about the number of Delta smelt that have been taken at the pumps.  The water projects are already at 46% of the take limit, and that take limit is for the water year, she noted.  “Generally we’re at 30% by the end of June, so there’s been curtailment of pumping already because of the take of smelt at the pumps.”

Executive Officer Chris Knopp asked how do you determine the population size when you have a take limit on how many individuals you can sample?

Ms. Hastings answered that this is a big issue, especially for the researchers … “there was a study this fall looking at the migration of smelt in response to first flush and turbidity, but they had to stop that study early because they are also subject to these same take limits. … So it is very difficult to scientifically study the population of a species when you have these take limits.  This is one of the big challenges when you have low numbers of fish and you’re trying to estimate what those numbers are but you are limited in your ability to do it.”

Mr. Knopp:  “Why I ask the question is that if you have a take limit that is influencing how much you can sample, and you have a year where you are reaching that limit early, doesn’t that lead you to the erroneous conclusion that the population is smaller than it actually is?

Ms. Hastings answered “I think what you alluding to is that there are questions about how the actual relationship between what is measured in the fall midwater trawl index and what it really indicates about the population and the distribution and movement of that population.  So this is one of the big areas the Interagency Ecological Program is looking at right now.” She noted that Interagency Ecological Program Lead Scientist Anke Mueller-Solger has more insights, and has offered to come and brief the Council in full on what they are learning.

Note from Maven:  What wasn’t covered in Ms. Hasting’s presentation was that not only was the Delta smelt index one of the lowest in the history of the trawl, but also for age-0 striped bass, longfin smelt, and threadfin shad.

  • Click here to read the memo from the Department of Fish and Game on the 2012 Fall Midwater Trawl Survey.

THE DELTA SCIENCE PLAN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE

At the last meeting, Lead Scientist Dr. Peter Goodwin had promised an outline of the Delta Science Plan, Ms. Hastings said: “Basically what we’ve done is put into outline form what Peter’s been presenting to you on the slides, and we’ve embedded in small graphics to remind you of the slides Peter has shown you.  We’ve incorporated input from you and other folks we’ve been talking with.”

The introduction of the science plan will spell out what the problem is, why a Delta Science Plan is needed, what will it do and how it is the solution: “We’ve realized we need is a framework to organize and integrate Delta science activities, to provide best available science, and to focus on priority management issues,” Ms. Hasting said.  The Plan will also provides approaches for communicating science to support adaptive management decision making, and provide tools for the science community to provide that best available science and to provide it in such a way as to support adaptive management.

Chapter 2 will describe the science-policy interface.  Ms. Hastings said they want to propose some innovative ideas on how to accomplish that; they are proposing teams that include policy makers and scientists who work together to provide the analysis of policy alternatives based on best available science.

Other chapters will answer how science communities can be organized and work better together to implement “One Delta One Science”, and once that structure is established, how can the structure support adaptive science and how the science community can work together to provide the best available science.

The outline of the Delta Plan was provided to the Delta Independent Science Board at their meeting last week, which Ms. Hastings was unable to attend, but was told “they all thought we’d make a lot of progress, big picture kudos for it”.  The science board made two comments: first, the title of chapter 2 is ‘science policy interface’, and the science board recommended that a management-policy interface be considered separately from a science-policy interface, because “policy and management are different and that we should treat them differently,” she said.  The science board also recommended that the science plan identify which entity or program will lead each of these efforts, and recommended that in many cases, that it be the Delta Science Program providing that leadership.

Regarding the timeline for the Delta Science Plan, Ms. Hastings said:  “We are committed to getting this done as quickly as we can and beating that deadline of December 2013. …  Our vision is that just as the Delta Plan is the umbrella plan under which BDCP resides, that the Delta Science Plan is the plan under which all other science efforts, including the BDCP science efforts, should reside.  That’s our vision, that’s what we’re working toward, still communicating and talking with the BDCP folks at a staff level to ensure that that happens as best as we are able to.”

  • Click here for the outline of the Delta Science Plan.
  • Click here for the Lead Scientist’s Report.

DELTA INDEPENDENT SCIENCE BOARD REPORT: REVIEWING HABITAT RESTORATION AND BDCP CHAPTER 7

Dr. Tracy Collier, Vice Chair of the Delta Independent Science Board, is here filling in for Dr. Dick Norgaard, who was unable to attend.  Dr. Collier began by talking about the DISB’s review of habitat restoration in the Delta, explaining that when the science board does reviews, “we’re not reviewing programs, we’re reviewing areas of science in general covering many programs.  So this is a different way of doing reviews than we have experience with so we are trying to come up with a value added approach,” he said.  So they asked two of the science board members to develop a document format which is currently about two-thirds complete; those who were developing the format found it more expedient to take some of the initial findings and insert it into the format document.  Because of the rules regarding meetings, the document must be posted prior to the meeting.  So while it may look like a complete document, it definitely is not, Dr. Collier said: “It is a preliminary report, meant to start out as a format only, and it does not incorporate all of our hearings because in fact we have yet to hold all of our hearings,” Dr. Collier explained, noting that at the next meeting, the board will be hearing from the USGS, and then will be ready to finalize the report.  “It’s a long way winded way of saying don’t’ worry if there are things that you don’t see or things that distress you, we have had comments from both within our board as well as the public about this preliminary draft.  It is not meant to be complete.”

The science board is reviewing Chapter 7 of the BDCP in preparation to review the BDCP’s environmental documents.  The science board has concerns about the intent of the BDCP to develop another large-scale Delta science program that would be coordinated with the science board as well as the Interagency Ecological Program.  Dr. Collier said: “we made some statements that this coordination is really important and we really are concerned about building yet another science program on a large scale.  … we do think there are principles about how science should be organized and conducted in the Delta. It’s premature to say what our comments are going to be on Chapter 7, but I think you will see some statements coming out that there still are some concerns by the DISB about developing another science program and what the implications of that are for reaching consensus on science issues in the Delta.”

  • Click here for the preliminary discussion draft (format) for the Delta Independent Science Board’s review of habitat restoration projects in the Delta.
  • Click here for the Delta Independent Science Board Report.

OTHER SCIENCE NOTES:

In December, the latest issue of the online journal, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science (SFEEWS) Journal, was published.  It’s the tenth year of the journal, but notably, it was the first year they could produce four issues.  The issue includes an editorial by Sam Luoma, the first lead scientist who initiated the journal, who thanks the Council for the ongoing support:  “This journal is provided free for readers, but of course, isn’t free to produce, so we thank you for your ongoing support,” said Ms. Hastings.  Click here to read the latest issue of the San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science Journal.

A special journal issue of “Environmental Biology of Fishes” has been released that spotlights the survival and movement of salmon and steelhead in the Delta, and features articles by researchers involved with the California Fish Tracking Consortium, who received a grant for their research from CALFED and the Delta Science Program.  Click here to access this special issue of Environmental Biology of Fishes.

On January 18, the Delta Science Program and the U.C. Davis Center for Aquatic Biology and Aquaculture (CABA) held a seminar, “What is a Natural Hydrograph in Regulated Rivers?  The Science of Natural Functional Flows to the Delta.”  The seminar is “part of our role in synthesizing what we know about the system and bringing in knowledge from elsewhere to help us understand how our system works,” said Ms. Hastings.  Key findings, panel discussions and materials from the workshop are being synthesized for a peer-review journal manuscript.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

  • Click here to view the meeting video.  The Lead Scientist’s Report and the Delta Independent Science Board report are agenda items 8 and 9.
  • Click here for the full agenda for the January 24, 2012 meeting of the Delta Stewardship Council.
  • Click here for the Lead Scientist’s Report.
  • Click here for the memorandum from Department of Fish and Game on the Fall Midwater Trawl Survey results.
  • Click here for the Delta Independent Science Board Report.
  • Click here for the preliminary draft discussion document on habitat restoration projects in the Delta.

OTHER COVERAGE FROM THE JANUARY 24 MEETING OF THE DELTA STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL:

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